The only way is up!

Industry recovery and growth will impact the FSTD arena.

When browsing the internet searching for news on recovery of the aviation industry, one stumbles across positivism, optimism and inspiring statistics, predicting that the industry will be at pre-covid levels in the next two to four years. Predictions on duration of the recovery, largely depend on the source of the information and the interest that source has in the recovery itself.

As such, the conflict in the Ukraine (as such) is said not to have too much direct impact on the speed at which recovery is taking place. Due to exploding fuel prices, disturbances in the global supply chain and, for example, staff shortages, it is not yet fully clear what the role of high inflations rates – as being experienced by a great number of economies – will be.

Towards the end of 2022, IATA expects airline traffic to be at approximately 83 percent of pre-covid levels. Implicitly, this means that for the near future, there is sufficient aircraft (seat) capacity and new aircraft sales are limited to replacement and fleet reshuffling. Additional capacity is expected appear by 2023 at the earliest, provided global economy will not hit a recession. In this delayed recovery scenario, the global commercial aircraft fleet will settle at 29,100 by 2028 whereas pre-covid, this number was expected to hit 34,300, a decrease of 15 percent . . .

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